Calculator methodology

How the estimate is built

A transparent, deterministic model for directional leakage exposure. Built for finance leaders who want a starting point before uploading billing data.

Your inputs

You answer questions about pricing models, contracts, discounts, billing systems, and controls. No CSV uploads or integrations.

Deterministic model

Answers map to 18 leakage hypotheses, segment your revenue profile, adjust for overlap, and run a fixed-seed Monte Carlo simulation.

Modeled range

You receive a low-to-high ARR range with drivers and assumptions. It is directional guidance, not an audited billing finding.

Headline range

What the numbers mean

  • The displayed range uses the 25th to 75th percentile of simulated outcomes.
  • Scenario toggles shift priors conservative, expected, or upside without changing your answers.
  • Billing complexity is scored separately and never multiplied directly against ARR.

Limits

What this is not

  • Does not inspect customer records or invoices.
  • Uses structural priors at launch (Stage 0), not calibrated audit outcomes yet.
  • Ranges overlap across drivers and should not be summed independently.
  • AI narrative, when shown, summarizes the model. It never sets the numbers.

Ready for evidence?

Use the calculator for a quick directional read. Upload billing exports when you want deterministic findings backed by records.